Individual State: D2 Preview
By Steve WidzinskiMI Grappler High School AnalystSteve@michigangrappler.com103
The Favorite: Joe Garcia (Adrian)
Top Contenders: Foster Karmon (Allegan), Lucas Hall (Lowell), Ian Parker (St. Johns)
The Dark Horse: Ricky Azelton (Tecumseh)
Top Early Matchups
Round 1: #6 Higley (Edwardsburg) vs #9 Serbus (Owosso)
Quarterfinals: #2 Parker (St. Johns) vs #5 Azelton (Tecumseh)
The Bottom Line: After finishing 2nd as a freshman Garcia had a relatively disappointing 5th place finish last March. He has been dominant all year long, and despite the presence of some elite freshman I expect this will be the postseason that Garcia finally reaches the top of the podium.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Hall over Parker, Garcia over Karmon
Finals: Garcia over Hall
112
The Favorite: Andrew Gorman (MH Lamphere)
Top Contenders: Mike Schmidt (Greenville), Mason Smith (Clio)
The Dark Horse: Zeth Dean (Lowell)
Top Early Matchups
Round 1: #5 Chris Poland (Middleville TK) vs #6 Nathan Ellis (Goodrich)
The Bottom Line: Everyone on this chart has taken a few losses this season and there is certainly the potential for some upsets. Gorman’s size and strength will be tough for anyone else on this bracket to match, but Smith is as dangerous as they come and his funk will make him a tricky matchup. I like Smith to upset Gorman in the semis, and ride the momentum to a win over Dean in the finals.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Smith over Gorman, Dean over Schmidt
Finals: Smith over Dean
119
The Favorite: Dean Somers (Lapeer West)
Top Contenders: Bailey Jack (Lowell), Colin Welcher (Hamilton), Nathan Weckesser (Big Rapids)
The Dark Horse: Anthony Garcia (Adrian)
Top Early Matchups
Round 1: #8 Zimmerman (Niles) vs #6 Tresemer (Zeeland East)
Round 1: #5 Busing (Byron Center) vs #9 Ward (Stevensville Lakeshore)
Quarterfinals: #1 Somers (Lapeer West) vs #3 Hamilton (Welcher)
Quarterfinals: #2 Jack (Lowell) vs #4 Weckesser (Big Rapids)
The Bottom Line: This is a crazy weight with some incredible early matchups, and possibly the deepest in D2. Plenty of wrestlers have a realistic shot at gold, but Somers has been clicking on all cylinders throughout the season and I just don’t see him losing.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Weckesser over Zimmerman, Somers over Busing
Finals: Somers over Weckesser
125
The Favorite: Zac Hall (St. Johns)
Top Contenders: Jaedin Slapsky (Eaton Rapids), JaQuan Moore (St. Clair Lakeshore)
The Dark Horse: Luke Spotts (Fremont)
Top Early Matchups
Round 1: #4 Abdellatif (Ypsilanti) vs #8 Spotts (Fremont)
The Bottom Line: No one on this chart can match Hall athletically or technically, and it would be a surprise if he had any close matches.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Hall over Slapsky, Moore over Abdellatif
Finals: Hall over Moore
130
The Favorite: Jacob Schmitt (St. Johns)
Top Contenders: Austin Kelley (Allegan), Alec Ward (Greenville)
The Dark Horse: Noah Hanau (Stevensville Lakeshore)
Top Early Matchups
Quartefinals: #5 Hanau (Stevensville Lakeshore) vs #3 Ward (Greenville)
The Bottom Line: Similar to his teammate Hall at 125lbs, Schmitt is the far and away favorite here. I am a big Kelley fan, but Schmitt is just too physical for him or any other 130lbr in D2.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Hanau over Meyer, Schmitt over Kelley
Finals: Schmitt over Hanau
135
The Favorite: Logan Massa (St. Johns)
Top Contenders: Anthony Gonzales (Holly), Mason Cleaver (Holly), Steve Bleise (Chelsea), Jordan Hall (Lowell)
The Dark Horse: Joel Rees (Sparta)
Top Early Matchups
Quarterfinals: #4 Bleise (Chelsea) vs #3 Cleaver (Holly)
Quarterfinals: #5 Hall (Lowell) vs #2 Gonzales (Holly)
The Bottom Line: There is a bit of a drop off after the top 6, but this weight has some scary firepower that can’t be matched by any other weight in D2. Massa’s national pedigree makes him the favorite, and he should be hungry after losing an OT thriller to current University of Nebraska wrestler Tim Lambert in last year’s finals. However, despite multiple losses to Massa I can’t count out Gonzales by a long shot. He has a tendency to save his best wrestling for the state meet, and his unorthodox style and build presents matchup problems for just about anyone.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Gonzales over Cleaver, Massa vs Rahoi
Finals: Massa over Gonzlaes
140
The Favorite: Kyle Simaz (Allegan)
Top Contenders: Tyler Stenberg (Muskegon RP), Adam Nichols (Lapeer West)
The Dark Horse: Austin Cottongim (Fowlerville)
Top Early Matchups
Round 1: #8 Kymes (Sault St. Marie) vs #5 Klingaman (Jackson NW)
Quarterfinals: #4 Cottongim (Fowlerville) vs #2 Stenberg (Muskegon RP)
The Bottom Line: Simaz may have the best motor in the entire state, and it will be difficult for anyone here to match his pace for 6 minutes. Stenberg and Nichols are both studs, but after two runner-up finishes Simaz is overdue for his first state championship.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Nichols over Stenberg, Simaz over Kaercher
Finals: Simaz over Nichols
145
The Favorite: Ben Whitford (St. Johns)
Top Contenders: Casey Burandt (Niles), Taylor Grenawalt (Haslett)
The Dark Horse: Dillon Ellsworth (Lapeer East)
Top Early Matchups
Round 1: #5 Myers (St. Joes) vs #9 Lesko (Tecumseh)
Quarterfinals: #2 Burandt (Niles) vs #4 Ellsworth (Lapeer East)
Quarterfinals: #1 Whitford (St. Johns) vs #3 Grenawalt (Haslett)
The Bottom Line: No wrestler in the country is more exciting to watch than Ben Whitford, and his non-stop offense will make him virtually unstoppable this weekend as pursues his 4th state championship (2 in MI, 2 in IL).
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Burandt over Sharkey, Whitford over Slaughter
Finals: Whitford over Burandt
152
The Favorite: Josh Pennell (St. Johns)
Top Contenders: Kenny Cross (Hastings), Ben Clinkscale (GR Northview), Travis Heller (Escanaba)
The Dark Horse: Fritz Findieson (Niles)
Top Early Matchups
Round 1: #3 Clinkscale (GR Northview) vs #8 Houghton (Mason)
Quarterfinals: #2 Cross (Hastings) vs #4 Heller (Escanaba)
Quarterfinals: #6 Findieson (Niles) vs #5 Hunt (Gaylord)
The Bottom Line: For 3 years Pennell has been knocking on the door, and he is well overdue for a state title. He may not score many points, but Pennell’s strength, positioning and mat presence will suit him well in close matches this weekend.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Cross over Findieson, Pennell over Brew
Finals: Pennell over Cross
160
The Favorite: Logan Ritchie (New Boston Huron)
Top Contenders: Jordan Sullivan (Coopersville), Devin Pingle (North Branch), Nathan Wynkoop (Ogemaw Heights)
The Dark Horse: Andrew Scott (Holly)
Top Early Matchups
Round 1: #5 Houston (Waverly) vs #9 Scott (Holly)
Round 1: #7 A. Droscha (Mason) vs #8 Proctor (BCW)
Quarterfinals: #2 Sullivan (Coopersville) vs #4 Wynkoop (Ogemaw Heights)
Quarterfinals: #3 Pingle (North Branch) vs #6 Amstutz (Tecumseh)
The Bottom Line: Pingle really flipped this weight upside down at regional with a convincing win over the previously undefeated and top-ranked Wynkoop. The depth here is awesome, and there will be plenty of great matchups from start to finish. As a sophomore Logan Ritchie is one of the state most explosive wrestlers, and I think his ability to score points in a hurry will be the difference.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Houston over Pingle, Ritchie over Wynkoop
Finals: Ritchie over Houston
171
The Favorite: Angus Arthur (St. Johns)
Top Contenders: Brett Dempsey (Mattawan), CJ Melton (Lapeer West)
The Dark Horse: Kyle Carter (Big Rapids)
Top Early Matchups
Round 1: #6 Dykstra (Middleville TK) vs #4 Calovecchi (Marquette)
Round 1: #5 Dean (Lowell) vs #7 Carter (Big Rapids)
Quarterfinals: #2 Dempsey (Mattawan) vs #3 Melton (Lapeer West)
The Bottom Line: All year long Arthur has been ranked atop this weight class, and rightfully so. However, Dempsey was 3rd place finisher last year who has quietly put together an undefeated season. I still like Arthur to come out on top, but Dempsey will be a formidable foe.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Dempsey over Calovecchi, Arthur over Dean
Finals: Arthur over Dempsey
189
The Favorite: Payne Hayden (St. Johns)
Top Contenders: Garrett Stehley (Lowell), Mike Hovater (Chelsea)
The Dark Horse: Robert James (Kearsley)
Top Early Matchups
Round 1: #6 Stoehl (Hamilton) vs #8 Stid (Mason)
Quarterfinals: #2 Stehley (Lowell) vs #5 James (Kearsley)
The Bottom Line: Never finishing lower than 3rd, Hayden is one of the state’s best who has yet to win a state title. He makes his final trip to the Palace as the favorite, and shouldn’t have too much trouble making the finals where he will likely see Stehley. The two wrestled an extremely tight bout at the GFC, and given the stakes I expect the rematch to be even closer.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Stehley over Hovater, Hayden over Pelham
Finals: Hayden over Stehley
215
The Favorite: Brian Moran (Fowlerville)
Top Contender: Taylor Kornoely (Lowell)
The Dark Horse: Preston Pelham (Tecumseh)
Top Early Matchups
Round 1: #3 Challender (Charlotte) vs #6 Alarie (BCW)
Quarterfinals: #2 Kornoely (Lowell) vs #3 Challender/#6 Alarie
The Bottom Line: Moran been nationally ranked for nearly the entire past two seasons, but some unenviable draws have kept him from winning a state title. This year he is the hands down favorite, and will be expected to dominate.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Moran over Cooper, Kornoely over Pelham
Finals: Moran over Kornoely
285
The Favorite: Adam Coon
Top Contenders: Tom Stackpole (Trenton), Joe Rebottaro (Tecumseh)
The Dark Horse: Billy Belcher (Spring Lake)
Top Early Matchups
Quarterfinals: #4 Belcher (Spring Lake) vs #4 Rebottaro (Tecumseh)
The Bottom Line: The nation’s best big man has not been challenged all year in the state of Michigan, and that won’t change this weekend. Adam Coon should pin his way through this chart en route to his 4th consecutive state championship.
PROJECTIONS
Semis: Coon over Stackpole, Rebottaro over Eible
Finals: Coon over Rebottaro
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